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The 4 uncontrollable forces that plague every leader
“[O]ne can make money in the financial markets totally out of randomness.”
– Nassim Nicholas Taleb
– Nassim Nicholas Taleb
“Why” questions confound every leader at some point in his or her career. In The Halo Effect, author Rosenzweig pinpoints the irrationality of the “why” fallacy: “We like to believe that … the business world [is] a just and predictable place, ruled by precise laws…. [But] the most important questions in the business world don’t lend themselves to the predictability or replicability of physics.” (p. 126)
When I read the story of Esther, I am struck by the ironies, apparent luck and providence at play.
Questions pop up at every turn in the story. Why does King Xerxes choose Esther, a young Jewish girl, to be his new queen? What makes one of his officials, Haman, hate the Jewish people so vehemently that he plans to annihilate them in a mini holocaust? What causes King Xerxes to suddenly soften toward his queen and her family? And how in the world does Esther get away with finally revealing her Jewish heritage, then force Haman to condemn himself in front of the king?
This story seems farfetched. But so do the storied successes of many organizations today. The message in Esther is that God is in control; the reality today is that forces we can’t control are at work inside and outside organizations. Let’s look at a few of them.
1. Slow response – Hysteresis is defined as “the lag in response exhibited by a body in reacting to changes in the forces affecting it.” A system with no hysteresis is like a light bulb flicking on and off. People and organizations have hysteresis. Their responses tend to lag behind the forces affecting them.
During the lags, other things often happen that further affect the outcome, or present new dilemmas altogether. Similarly, against her uncle’s advice, Esther waited to appeal to the king to save her people. This allowed the pieces to move into place for her final victory.
2. Pure randomness – Burton Malkiel, in his classic book A Random Walk Down Wall Street, explains that the future value of stocks often depends on unknowable events. In the 1970s, the long-stable utilities industry tanked from sudden oil price increases. It suffered again in the 80s during the Three Mile Island nuclear catastrophe. The 90s brought deregulation, and the woes continued into the new millennium with the Enron scandal and another oil-price spike in 2008 that contributed to the U.S. recession.
A key turning point in the story of Esther arises from her Uncle Mordecai being in the right place at the right time. He happens to see a potential assassin preparing to kill the king, and foils the attempt. The reward for this act of bravery saves his life later and paves the way for his enemy Haman’s downfall.
3. Good timing – Mediabistro.com is a job listing site for writers, founded by Laurel Touby in 1996. An editor for Glamour magazine, Touby felt isolated working from her home in New York City, so she started organizing social mixers for media professionals, which grew into must-attend events. She built an online version of her parties, expanding her network through e-mail invitations.
When Monster.com catapulted into the online job classifieds market, Touby tried paid listings on her site, too. The wisdom of that decision bore fruit just before the recession in 2007, when she sold her site for $23 million.
Esther’s story is riddled with instances of perfect timing that seem calculated in retrospect. It seems like everything was scripted and executed perfectly. But to Esther and her uncle, it was anything but planned.
4. The Butterfly Effect – Edward Lorenz’s famous “butterfly effect” states that small effects lead to big changes. He explains how something as minuscule as a butterfly flapping its wings in Brazil can cause a domino-effect in the atmosphere that later triggers tornadoes in Texas. [source] In more general terms, his law describes how minute alterations in a system can tip off a chain of events leading to large-scale phenomena.
In the book of Esther, the butterfly is in full effect. For example, it was unheard of for Jews – who had been conquered by the Persians – to be employed in the Persian government. Mordecai somehow retains an influential job in the palace, where he is positioned perfectly to guide Esther as she saves the Jews from annihilation.
These four laws are not infallible but they underscore the power of chance and timing, and the ease with which the Lord cloaks himself in both.
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Tom Harper is president of NetWorld Alliance, which publishes www.churchcentral.com and several online news portals in the retail, banking, technology and restaurant industries.
He is author of Leading from the Lions’ Den: Leadership Principles from Every Book of the Bible, (Sept. 2010, B&H Publishing). His Twitter account is @TomRHarper.
When I read the story of Esther, I am struck by the ironies, apparent luck and providence at play.
Questions pop up at every turn in the story. Why does King Xerxes choose Esther, a young Jewish girl, to be his new queen? What makes one of his officials, Haman, hate the Jewish people so vehemently that he plans to annihilate them in a mini holocaust? What causes King Xerxes to suddenly soften toward his queen and her family? And how in the world does Esther get away with finally revealing her Jewish heritage, then force Haman to condemn himself in front of the king?
This story seems farfetched. But so do the storied successes of many organizations today. The message in Esther is that God is in control; the reality today is that forces we can’t control are at work inside and outside organizations. Let’s look at a few of them.
1. Slow response – Hysteresis is defined as “the lag in response exhibited by a body in reacting to changes in the forces affecting it.” A system with no hysteresis is like a light bulb flicking on and off. People and organizations have hysteresis. Their responses tend to lag behind the forces affecting them.
During the lags, other things often happen that further affect the outcome, or present new dilemmas altogether. Similarly, against her uncle’s advice, Esther waited to appeal to the king to save her people. This allowed the pieces to move into place for her final victory.
2. Pure randomness – Burton Malkiel, in his classic book A Random Walk Down Wall Street, explains that the future value of stocks often depends on unknowable events. In the 1970s, the long-stable utilities industry tanked from sudden oil price increases. It suffered again in the 80s during the Three Mile Island nuclear catastrophe. The 90s brought deregulation, and the woes continued into the new millennium with the Enron scandal and another oil-price spike in 2008 that contributed to the U.S. recession.
A key turning point in the story of Esther arises from her Uncle Mordecai being in the right place at the right time. He happens to see a potential assassin preparing to kill the king, and foils the attempt. The reward for this act of bravery saves his life later and paves the way for his enemy Haman’s downfall.
3. Good timing – Mediabistro.com is a job listing site for writers, founded by Laurel Touby in 1996. An editor for Glamour magazine, Touby felt isolated working from her home in New York City, so she started organizing social mixers for media professionals, which grew into must-attend events. She built an online version of her parties, expanding her network through e-mail invitations.
When Monster.com catapulted into the online job classifieds market, Touby tried paid listings on her site, too. The wisdom of that decision bore fruit just before the recession in 2007, when she sold her site for $23 million.
Esther’s story is riddled with instances of perfect timing that seem calculated in retrospect. It seems like everything was scripted and executed perfectly. But to Esther and her uncle, it was anything but planned.
4. The Butterfly Effect – Edward Lorenz’s famous “butterfly effect” states that small effects lead to big changes. He explains how something as minuscule as a butterfly flapping its wings in Brazil can cause a domino-effect in the atmosphere that later triggers tornadoes in Texas. [source] In more general terms, his law describes how minute alterations in a system can tip off a chain of events leading to large-scale phenomena.
In the book of Esther, the butterfly is in full effect. For example, it was unheard of for Jews – who had been conquered by the Persians – to be employed in the Persian government. Mordecai somehow retains an influential job in the palace, where he is positioned perfectly to guide Esther as she saves the Jews from annihilation.
These four laws are not infallible but they underscore the power of chance and timing, and the ease with which the Lord cloaks himself in both.
------
Tom Harper is president of NetWorld Alliance, which publishes www.churchcentral.com and several online news portals in the retail, banking, technology and restaurant industries.
He is author of Leading from the Lions’ Den: Leadership Principles from Every Book of the Bible, (Sept. 2010, B&H Publishing). His Twitter account is @TomRHarper.
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Tom Harper
Tom Harper is president of Networld Media Group, a publisher of online trade journals and events for the banking, retail, restaurant and church leadership markets. He is the author of Leading from the Lions' Den: Leadership Principles from Every Book of the Bible (B&H).
