Over the last few years research groups like Gallup, The Barna, and the Association of Religious Data Archives have attempted to get a clear picture of the state of the Church in America. Until recently, it was widely accepted that over 40 percent of Americans attend church on a regular basis. If these numbers are right then over 130 million Americans fill our churches on any given Sunday. Not bad numbers , but are they right? Are we really doing that well? Recently, new research reveals that these numbers may be overstated and misleading.

In 2004 David Olson, director of the American Church Research Project, published his work The American Church In Crisis, and shattered the popular belief that almost half of Americans go to church. He discovered that overall church attendance in the U.S. was actually around 17.5 percent. If these numbers hold true, the American  Church is at a historic low and in danger of losing its influence on the American culture.

Why does such a large gap exist between the former popular belief and these new findings? The answer lies in the way the data was gathered. Prior to Olson’s research, many groups asked the American people about their habit of attending church. Olson took a different approach by studying the actual attendance records of churches across the nation. What he discovered was that fewer Americans attended church than what was previously believed.

The gap between these two percentages has been attributed to a sociological phenomenon called the “Halo effect.” Simply put, the “Halo effect” is another way of saying people exaggerate the truth. In other words, those individuals being surveyed often answered in a way they thought it was best answer to give even if it was not truthful. For example, in most post-election polls a wide gap almost always exists between people who claim to have voted and those who actually voted. Human beings have been trying to make themselves look better than they really are ever since sin entered the world. That shouldn’t be a surprise to us. The “Halo Effect” is just another way of terming this age-old problem.

Another alarming statistic has to do with the rate of population growth versus church growth. In 2007 the American population climbed to over 300 million. However the attendance averages within most American churches has remained unchanged for well over a decade. In 1990, approximately 52 million Americans attended worship each week. Fifteen years later, in 2005, the number remained relatively unchanged. While the United States population continued to explode from 1990 to 2005, the average worship attendance, as a percentage of the population, declined almost 3 percent.

What does this statistic tell us? The church is not keeping up with current population growth trends within the United States. According to Olson’s research, if the trend continues, by 2050 the percentage of Americans attending worship could drop from 17.5 percent to just over 11 percent. Stop right now and just let that percentage sweep over you. If that doesn’t cause you to gain a new sense of urgency, check your pulse and make sure your heart is still beating. Even if every church in America began to grow considerably, to keep up with the population growth within the United States, we will have to plant many, many more churches. It is a simple matter of survival. Truth be told, that is my real agenda in this blog. We need more new churches!

Some may ask, “Don’t we have enough churches in America? Why can’t we just fill up these existing churches? ” It is hard to estimate how many churches exist in the United States. Some estimate as low as 300,000, others have estimated as high as 450,000. Whatever that number may be, the vast majority of churches in America (roughly 80 percent) are in a state of decline. These declining churches are experiencing a new era in their life cycle making it difficult to gain any positive momentum. Some of these limiting factors involve size, location, mindset, money, leadership, age of the facility, and negative history to mention a few.

One of the major factors limiting a church’s growth potential is age. Research supports the fact that the older a church gets, the more it settles into a routine and quickly loses steam. Consider this, between 2005-2006 over 57 percent of churches, over 40 years of age, were in a state of decline. The older the church, the more difficult it becomes for a church to grow. Before you throw this book down, tear it up or light it on fire remember we are just the messengers. Don’t hate the messenger.

Along with an aging church comes an aging membership. If you are feeling a little frustrated about what you’re reading, you are not alone. No church is exempt from this potential problem. Even well known mega-churches throughout the Unites States are suffering from the problem of aging congregations. Even if they won’t admit it, many are trying desperately to correct a downward trend in attendance. Over half of the churches in America will soon be facing major decisions about their future.

Every church will, at some point, have to face the unsavory fact that it is aging. Unlike medium and larger sized churches, the smaller churches experience this dilemma with a greater sense of urgency. Why? The smaller church often has fewer people and resources to draw from that will enable it to overcome the current situation.  Therefore the small church struggles to stay alive and often pours vast amounts of energy and resources into a dying enterprise.

Don’t misunderstand. I am not implying that small, struggling churches, which dominate the American religious landscape, have no value. The small church, without a doubt, has been a major player in the formation of religious culture in America. In fact, most churches in America are small with an average of “seventy-five people in regular attendance” and an average age of attendee of around fifty-five. Over 50 percent of all churches in America have fewer than one hundred attendees and 35 percent have fewer than fifty-five regular attendees. The small church has, in no small way, kept the Church afloat. So, the issue is not necessarily size. No matter what the size, the main issue that will determine a church’s viability is its ability or lack of ability to engage the culture.

The energy a dying church, of any size, will have to pour into a potentially futile lunge toward life could be used more strategically and with greater Kingdom impact. Imagine what might happen if the energy and resources used by these struggling churches were poured into the starting a new, vibrant church. It is important to understand that it is significantly easier and more cost effective to start a new congregation than to revitalize or restart an older, dying congregation. Please don’t misunderstand.  This is not an attempt to downplay the power of God or His ability to move in a powerful way. We are not trying to overlook the historic move of God in your church nor do we think what your church has accomplished has little or no value. Nothing is impossible with God!

However, death is also a natural part of life. The human body, as well as the local church body, is held captive by this life cycle. Death is not something to fear, rather something to celebrate and for which we should all prepare. If done properly, your church’s ministry and legacy can live on beyond your wildest dreams and expectations.

As stated earlier, if you find yourself in this frustrating and depressing state, you are not alone. Almost every church, district, and denomination is struggling with the effects of decline. In a recent post on Churchcentral.com, Ken Walker reported that the Southern Baptist Convention, one of the largest church families in the world, is set to close 50 percent of its churches by the year 2030, if all things remain the same. In my own denominational family, General Association of General Baptists, we also have the potential to experience the same percent of closure.

In a state of panic, many do everything within their power to keep the doors of their church open. No expense is sparred to prop up a desperate situation. While that solution may have positive short-term returns, these frantic efforts usually only delay the inevitable.

There is no doubt the church in America is experiencing a crisis. We really have only two choices in the midst of this crisis: Panic or Plan. The crisis we face as a Church can be viewed as a sign of the times, or as an opportunity to reengage the culture through the strategic, purposeful planting of new churches. It could be that we do a little of both by allowing our panic to force us to make good plans. We are at a crossroads over the next decade that could propel us into the future with greater efficacy or cause us to fade away with nothing more than a quiet little whimper. The choice is ours, but we must make the choice with a great sense of urgency. As aging churches begin to close their doors, giving decreases, which in turn makes less money available to utilize in the starting of new churches. It’s a vicious cycle. What’s the answer? Help local churches develop a proper theology of death, give up on a nominal existence of life support and enable them to leave a legacy.

Excerpted from Legacy Churches