I recently concluded a two-month consultation with a church averaging 600 in attendance. The most startling component of my consultation from the members' perspective was the simple graph that showed the church had declined 40 percent in 10 years.

A few members were aware that the sanctuary was not quite as full as it was 10 years earlier, but no one seemed to realize the severity of the decline. One longer-term member commented: "You woke us up from our complacency!"

After several years of church growth emphases, and after years of numerical reports in our own denomination, many church leaders are ready to conclude that numbers really do not matter. Such an attitude could prove life threatening for many congregations.

Tale of the Tape

Consider the following, for example. The work of my research team shows that we only reach one person for Christ for every 85 members in churches across America. Southern Baptists, the world's largest Protestant denomination, often take solace in the fact that we do twice as well as the national average. They baptize one person for every 40 members. Or do they?

The reality is that they do baptize one person for every 40 members, but they do not reach one person for Christ for every 40 members. If Christians from non-immersion churches are excluded, and if re-baptisms are excluded, their numbers match up with the national averages. They are reaching only one person for Christ for every 85 church members.

What else do the numbers tell us? Follow me in this exercise. Divide all 400,000 churches in America into three categories: growing, non-growing and declining. Notice that I did not use the much abused word "plateaued." I have yet to find a church of any background whose numbers do not change. There really is no such thing as a plateaued church.

A declining church is simply defined as a church with less attendance than the previous period. A growing church is not only increasing in attendance, it is increasing at a pace faster than its community's population growth rate. A non-growing church may be growing, but its pace of growth is slower than the growth rate of the community. In other words, the non-growing church is losing ground in the community, even if it has some slight numerical increases.

Losing Ground?

So how do our churches stack up? According to our survey of 1,159 churches in our nation, only 6 percent of the churches are growing according to the definition of "growing" used above. Stated inversely, 94 percent of our churches are losing ground in the communities they serve.

Numerical tracking for numbers' sake can be harmful, even sinful. Undoubtedly, many of us have been guilty of the idolatry of numbers. But let us not move to the other extreme. The failure to be aware of attendance, baptisms and other numerical guideposts can lead to delusion and complacency.

Many churches today need the wake up call of reality. Church leaders need to plan in God's power for the next few years. Strategic planning calls first for total submission to God in prayer and fasting. Then we dare to ask the question: "How are we doing?" The numbers may tell us that we are not doing nearly as well as we thought.

But is often that wake-up call of reality that moves church leaders to become more intentional about prayer, evangelism, ministry and biblical preaching. The wake-up call may be painful, but it can also be the beginning point of healing and growing. May your church be that church that seeks to use numbers for good, for growth and, above all, for God's glory.

*This article originally appeared in the November 2002 issue of the Rainer Report.

Dr. Thom S. Rainer is president of Church Central Associates. He also is dean of the Billy Graham School of Missions, Evangelism and Church Growth at the Southern Baptist Theological Seminary in Louisville, Ky.