In a recent conference on stock market trends, one of the speakers boldly declared that "one who predicts the future is either omniscient or a fool." I know I am not the former, and I hope I am not the latter. In last month's issue, I shared the first five of 10 trends I envision for the church by 2010. I reminded readers that my prognostications were not based on my dubious wisdom or my uncertain intellect.

I am, however, a student of the church. In the past nine years, my research team has examined more than 4,000 churches. We have interviewed countless persons, both churched and unchurched, on their attitudes about the church. And we have observed innumerable cultural trends that directly impact the church.

Thus, the information you have read and are about to read is not a blind stab in the dark. It is more of an extrapolation of that which is already taking place. It is a prediction based on current evidence. As a reminder, the trends noted in the first article, in no order of priority or importance, were:

As we look at five more trends for the church by 2010, a common thread runs through all of them. "Successful churches" are becoming high commitment and high expectation churches. For nearly 50 years, a majority of American churches eased into the ruts of routine and low expectations. One could be a "member in good standing" in some of the churches without attending church for an entire year! But the times are now changing indeed.

Trend #6: Stabilized church attendance with declining church membership. It is no easy task to measure church attendance in America. Even in a single church, measurement standards are often inconsistent or nonexistent. Many of the polls of recent years suggest that church attendance has been mostly stable for the past four decades. Our own samplings, however, indicate that church attendance declined from 1975 to 1999, and that attendance has leveled off for the past three years.

The leveling of attendance must be seen as a positive development in light of a quarter of century of declining numbers. But church membership, largely stable for decades, is showing early signs of erosion. Is this trend healthy or unhealthy?

We believe that the better indicator of church involvement is attendance rather than membership. But the early indicators of declining membership may not be negative signs. Many church leaders, frustrated with nominal and nonexistent members, are purging their rolls. One large church recently removed 10,000 members from its rolls. Yet the attendance in the church has seen healthy increases. It would appear that the positive perspective of this trend is that more church leaders are taking church membership more seriously.

Trend #7: The emergence of "homegrown" ministers in 30 percent of all full-time ministry positions in the local church. Most followers of American church life would express surprise that an increasing number of churches are finding full-time ministry staff persons within the ranks of their own membership. Our recent sampling found that 8 percent of all staff ministers were "home grown."

But we have been amazed to see the number of such ministers increase significantly in the past three years. The proportion has doubled from 4 percent to 8 percent just since 1999. Based upon these trends, we anticipate that nearly one out of three full-time staff ministers in the local church will be called from the ranks of laypersons in that particular church by 2010.

The implications are many. One obvious benefit is that each of these ministers will have an intimate knowledge of the church. The minister will certainly believe in the core values and the church's vision. And training time will be minimal since an orientation to the church will not be needed.

But a possible concern is the lack of formal and theological training of the minister, seminary or otherwise. Some churches, realizing both the advantage of homegrown ministers and the disadvantage of their having no formal training, have partnered with seminaries to have the best of both worlds. Watch for this trend to grow in this decade.

Trend #8: An increase in intentional evangelistic ministries focused on children and youth. Our research shows that 82 percent of American Christians became Christians before the age of 20. While this statistic is noteworthy, even more amazing is the number of Christians who accepted Christ before the age of 14 - 75 percent, according to our research.

A casual observer would probably expect churches to be intensely involved in evangelistic activity, based on some awareness of the young people's receptivity. An additional impetus, it would seem, would be the large numbers of this generation. Most of them belong to the Bridger generation, the second largest generation in America's history. The young people born between 1977 and 1994 exceed 72 million.

But the reality is that relatively few churches are intensely intentional about evangelizing or pre-evangelizing children and youth. Most churches seem to ignore their own data, which shows, according to our research, vacation Bible school to be the most effective evangelistic tool used today. Most of the highly intentional evangelizing activity for young people has been led by parachurch organizations.

We see a reversal in this trend. Early signs indicate a significant interest by local churches in reaching and evangelizing children and youth. Some of the most innovative new church buildings are for youth and children. Church leaders are examining closely the numbers of conversions of young people. And even more leaders are becoming increasingly aware of the competition for the souls of America's youth. Mormons, Jehovah's Witnesses, and Muslims, to name a few, have not been shy about proselytizing young people. Look for more churches to become highly intentional about reaching children and youth.

Trend #9: An increasing number of churches with succession plans for their senior pastor or minister. An abundance of research has made clear the importance of the senior pastor or minister in a local church's health or growth. Yet most churches have no idea what will take place when their present pastor leaves.

In our survey of 312 churches, only seven had some type of plan in place when their pastor resigned, moved or died. We believe, however, that the trend will develop where more and more churches have some type of plan in place.

Why do we predict this trend when the current evidence seems contrary? A few significant churches have established succession plans, and many other church leaders are observing closely. Southeast Christian Church in Louisville, Ky., one of America's largest churches, has a clearly established succession plan in place. Even though senior minister Bob Russell will not retire for several more years, associate minister Dave Stone is already in place to take the leadership helm.

This trend is beginning to take root in some mid-size churches with attendance of 300 to 700. We believe the number will grow.

Trend #10: The emergence of a children's minister as the third full-time staff minister. We are frequently asked the "best" priority for calling and hiring staff ministers. Which position, after pastor, should be our second staff person? Should that person be full-time or part-time? Which position is next? The questions seem endless.

The traditional hiring pattern has been pastor, music/worship, and then numerous possibilities for the third. The third position may include education, discipleship, missions, administration, youth or student. The context and needs of the church, as well as past patterns, typically determine the choice.

In recent years, we have seen an increased interest in hiring a children's minister as the third staff person. That position may or may not include the responsibility of preschool children. In a recent survey of churches with three ministers on staff, 17 percent had a children's minister. The youth/student minister or the education/discipleship minister was still the dominant choice (53 percent and 27 percent respectively), but children's ministers are gaining ground significantly. Undoubtedly, an awareness of the issues related to trend eight influences church leaders in this direction.

As I indicated earlier, the 10 trends noted in these two issues are neither perfect predictions nor an exhaustive collection. They are, however, major trends that have emerged on our radar. We will keep you in touch as these and other trends develop.

Thom S. Rainer is president of Church Central Associates, publisher of ChurchCentral.com. He also is dean of the Billy Graham School of Missions, Evangelism and Church Growth at the Southern Baptist Theological Seminary in Louisville, Ky.