Americans didn't lose their religion in 2002, despite one of the Church's worst years for publicity.
In fact, the Pew Global Attitudes Project, released in late December 2002, showed that six in 10 Americans said religion plays a "very important" role in their lives.
What people say and actually do, however, doesn't always coincide, said Glenn Daman of the Center for Rural Church Leadership.
"America's churches are hurting," said Daman, who often consults small churches, helping them find ways to attract new members. "As much as people say they want God, they don't bother making an effort to come to church and learn how to get Him."
"The churches that make a difference will not do church the way we've always done it. These times are either the most exciting or the most disturbing for church leaders."
-- Thom Rainer,
church health expert |
"It was already tough to reach people, but give them an excuse like that, and they can put up a good argument for wanting to stay away from the mainline churches," he said.
Still, other research released in 2002 shows promise:
- The number of Americans who believe in heaven and hell is up from 6 in 10 in the last decade to 8 in 10, Gallup research indicates. Nearly 54 percent of Americans say they're religious, while 30 percent say they're spiritual and not religious, the Episcopal News Service reported. These percentages are about the same for teen-agers.
George Gallup, the founder of the famed research group and an Episcopalian, believes America is primed for a revival. While speaking at a New York City church annual symposium in early 2002, Gallup predicted a revival will be led by three groups: African-Americans, those ages 50-64, and the millennials.
- As Americans watch daily news unfold, more than one-third are wondering how it might relate to the end of the world. They're also talking about what the Bible has to say on the subject, according to a TIME/CNN poll conducted during the spring of 2002.
Nearly 60 percent of those polled nationwide said they believe the events in Revelation will come true. Nearly one-quarter think the Bible predicted the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, according to a lengthy report in Time magazine titled "The Bible and the Apocalypse."
The popular Left Behind series, which debuted in 1995, is feeding Americans' interest in the Apocalypse, according to Time. The series has sold 32 million copies, not including children's versions. Sales jumped 60 percent after Sept. 11, and Book 9, published in October, was the best-selling novel of 2001.
Thomas Tewell, senior minister of the Fifth Avenue Presbyterian Church in Manhattan, N.Y., said he had gone for years without anyone asking about the end times.
"But since Sept. 11, hard-core, crusty, cynical New York lawyers and stockbrokers who are not moved by anything are saying, ‘Is the world going to end?' ‘Are all the events of the Bible coming true?'" Tewell told the magazine. "They want to get right with God. I've never seen anything like it in my 30 years in ministry."
- Conservative churches that set high expectations for their members experienced faster and greater growth than other religious denominations in the 1990s, according to a study released Sept. 17.
"Religious Congregations and Membership: 2000" is based on self-reporting by religious groups. Because the U.S. Census Bureau does not ask about religion, this study -- first done in 1971 -- is considered the most comprehensive assessment available, according to The New York Times. The study was conducted by Glenmary Research Center and sponsored by the Association of Statisticians of American Religious Bodies.
"I was astounded to see that by and large the growing churches are those that we ordinarily call conservative," said Ken Sanchagrin, director of the Glenmary Research Center. "And when I looked at those that were declining, most were moderate or liberal churches. And the more liberal the denomination, by most people's definition, the more they were losing."
Predictions for the Church's future
Church health expert Thom Rainer, who has written 13 books based on his exclusive research into church health and reaching the unchurched, says there are a number of trends to watch out for by 2010. Among them are an increase in Americans' interest in spiritual warfare and an increased demand for clarity and conviction in doctrine, Rainer said.
Most notably, Rainer predicts the closing of 50,000 churches by 2010. Churches led by the builder generation, those born before 1946, had members that attended out of loyalty and tradition, he said.
"They would often remain loyal to a church despite deteriorating quality and attendance," Rainer said.
Younger generations have no such loyalties and see no need to remain with a church that exists out of tradition and with little care for the quality of the ministries, according to Rainer.
Another of Rainer's predicted trends might offset the loss of 50,000 congregations. Rainer expects to see a surge in the number of churches with attendance below 300.
There are millions of young adults who desire the small church intimacy of 300 or less, Rainer said.
"But they have been unable to find many small churches that offer quality preaching, childcare, youth programs and the like," he said. "They will start their own churches with a focus on quality while remaining relatively small."
Rainer also expects church leaders to take membership more seriously, purging their rolls of nominal and non-existent members. The better indicator of church involvement, Rainer said, is attendance rather than membership.
Successful churches will spend more time intentionally reaching out to children and youth. According to Rainer's research, 82 percent of American Christians became Christians before the age of 20. As part of a renewed emphasis on youth, churches will increasingly seek to hire a children's minister full time.
Other ministers are likely to be pulled from lay members. While an unconventional move, such a hire reduces training time since an orientation to the church is not necessary. An obvious benefit, Rainer said, is that the ministers will already have an intimate knowledge of the church, its core values and vision.
Rainer said the trend to watch out for and be willing to accept is change.
"The churches that make a difference will not do church the way we've always done it," he said. "These times are either the most exciting or the most disturbing for church leaders."
