I have some level of enjoyment looking at old predictions. Those pundits of the past seemed very informed at the time of their predictions. Years later they often look like some of the most uninformed people in their respective fields. I realize that I take the same risk in projecting trends for the church. Predictions are precarious in any field, and maybe particularly so for the church. The American church has seen more changes in the past two decades than the previous eight decades combined. Who would then be so audacious to foretell for the church? Such is the risk I take in writing this article.

Please understand that I make these predictions with less audacity than it might appear on the surface. My research team and I have studied more than 4,000 churches and interviewed tens of thousands of church leaders, church members, and unchurched persons. I do not have a crystal ball or some future prophetic abilities. The trends you are about to read are based on current developments, for which I have simply extrapolated to the future.

In this article, I will highlight the first five trends, and save the final five for my next article. Their order is random, and does not reflect some type of priority or certainty of expectation. So buckle your seatbelt and let us delve into the next eight years of church life.

Trend #1: The increasing interest in spiritual warfare. The wildly popular Left Behind book series is only symptomatic of the increasing interest in the world of spiritual warfare. And after the many pronouncements of the reality and presence of evil after Sept. 11, people across America are seeking answers in a world where evil is a real and present reality.

How will church leaders respond? There will naturally be the extremes present in any movement. On the one hand, some churches will continue to ignore the reality of the demonic world as if Ephesians 6 has little to do with their day-by-day existence. On the other hand, there will be churches that see demonic activity in every phase of the church life. Church members must be taught the biblical balance of the supernatural world. Church leaders must also be taught the biblical percepts of spiritual warfare. In a survey we did of 23 seminaries, only seven taught any courses related to spiritual warfare, but of those seven, leaders in those seminaries indicated that the courses were among the most popular.

Trend #2: The closing of 50,000 churches by 2010. Thousands of churches are on the precipice of closing. The conventional wisdom was that churches were tenaciously stubborn, and could keep going for years. But those churches were led by the builder generation, those born before 1946. The churchgoing builders attended churches out of loyalty and tradition. They would often remain loyal to a church despite deteriorating quality and attendance.

But boomers, busters/Gen Xers, and bridgers - those born between 1977 and 1994 - have no such loyalties. They see no need to remain with a church that exists out of tradition and with little care for the quality of the ministries. Though I am not happy to report this trend, the fading of the builder generation indicates the death of one out of eight churches in America today.

Trend #3: A surge in the number of churches whose attendance is below 300. A trend that may somewhat offset the loss of 50,000 churches will be the starting of new churches with a planned attendance cap. In other words, from the point of birth of these churches, the members will not let attendance move above a predetermined cap, most commonly in the 200 to 300 range. When the attendance approaches the cap, the members will plan to start another church. Of course, the daughter church will have the same philosophy of size and ministry, so the number of these smaller churches will continue to grow.

Why will these churches proliferate? Both Gen X and the bridger generation include millions of young adults who desire the small church intimacy of 300 or less. But they have been unable to find many small churches that offer quality preaching, childcare, youth programs, and the like. Therefore, they will start their own churches with a focus on quality while remaining relatively small.

Trend #4: The incredible influence of the bridger generation. The impact of those born between 1977 and 1994 will be more than just the starting of new churches mentioned in the previous trend. The paradoxical implication of this generation is that there are fewer Christians in this age range than previous generations, but their impact will be more profoundly felt than the larger numbers of Christians in the older age groups.

According to our research, as few as 4 percent of the 72 million bridger generation may have a born-again experience. Yet, that 4 percent will practice a radical Christianity. They will take their faith more seriously than previous generations. And many will go into dangerous mission fields, willing to give their lives for the sake of the gospel.

The bridger generation will not be satisfied with business as usual in the churches. And those churches that desire to reach the second-largest generation in America's history better be prepared to give more than lip service to the cause of Christ. These young people are shaking life up in many churches.

Trend #5: The increasing demand for clarity and conviction in doctrine. Led by the bridger generation and Gen X, those who come to the churches of the 21st century are increasingly seeking to learn the tenets of the Christian faith. They are not satisfied with coming to church for the sake of coming to church. They desire to know more of what they believe, and they insist that the church and her leaders express conviction about these beliefs. The churches that survive and grow in the years ahead will provide numerous opportunities for members and seekers to learn more about the faith to which they adhere.

The Implications

Few would argue that the Christian faith in America is slowly but perceptibly being moved to the margins of society. The churches that make a difference will not do church the way we've always done it. Since the church will no longer be a part of the mainstream culture, it cannot expect to survive or thrive with the loyal churchgoer base of old. In the next article, we will look at five more trends that will impact the 21st century church.

As you will see, these times are either the most exciting or the most disturbing for church leaders. I hope you will join me through these articles that we may work together to see some of the most challenging days in the church in recent history. We serve a God through whom all things are possible. Let us go forward in the confidence of His strength and not our own.

Thom S. Rainer is president of Church Central Associates, publisher of ChurchCentral.com. He also is dean of the Billy Graham School of Missions, Evangelism and Church Growth at the Southern Baptist Theological Seminary in Louisville, Ky.